AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

March 31, 2015

A few minutes after the USDA reports, corn futures are trading down 13 cents. USDA Prospective Plantings report put national corn acreage at 89.2 million, slightly above the average pre-report estimate of just under 89 million.  March 1 corn stocks, at 7.744 billion, are somewhat below the average pre-report estimate of 7.6 billion bushels.  Corn planting in the South continues to be well behind, with Louisiana reporting 16% completed vs. the 5 year average of 81%.  Texas reports 20% planted vs. an average of 43% for this date

May 15 Corn is at $3.81 1/2, down 13 cents,

Jul 15 Corn is at $3.89 1/4, down 13 1/4 cents,

Sep 15 Corn is at $3.96 3/4, down 13 1/4 cents

Dec 15 Corn is at $4.05, down 13 1/4 cents

Soybeans

March 31, 2015

After initially posting a 30 cent trading range in the first few minutes after the report, soybean futures are trading about 7 cents higher as this is written, and bean meal is up $4.70.  Soybean acreage was one of the most-popular topics going into the report.  Surveys indicated the trade on average expected USDA to come in with 85.9 million acres, up about 2.2 million from last year but the actual intentions came in at just 84.635 million.  The average soybean stocks estimate was near 1.35 billion bushels and it too was lighter than the trade expected, coming in at 1.334 billion. EIA reported US January biodiesel production totaled 72 mgal, similar to the 73 mgal for January 2014 but down from 123 mgal in December 2014.

May 15 Soybeans are at $9.75 1/2, up 7 3/4 cents,

Jul 15 Soybeans are at $9.80 1/4, up 7 1/2 cents,

Aug 15 Soybeans are at $9.79, up 7 cents,

Sep 15 Soybeans are at $9.64 3/4, up 5 3/4 cents,

May 15 Soybean Meal is at $327.90, up $4.70,

May 15 Soybean Oil is at $30.31, down $0.18

Wheat

March 31, 2015

Wheat futures are giving back most of their Monday gains as they are sharply lower following the report, despite slightly smaller numbers in the report than the trade was expecting. All-wheat acreage was expected to come in above 55.7 million and was put at 55.367 million. Spring estimates averaged 13.3ma; USDA found only 12.969ma. Durum came in at 1.647ma, also below the trade estimate of 1.7ma. Trade estimates for March 1 wheat stocks averaged 1.14 billion bushels, making USDA’s 1.124 just a touch tighter than expected.

May 15 CBOT Wheat is at $5.13 1/2, down 16 3/4 cents,

May 15 KCBT Wheat is at $5.62 1/4, down 14 cents,

May 15 MGEX Wheat is at $5.83 1/4, down 7 1/2 cents

Cattle

March 31, 2015

Live cattle futures show gains from a dime to 63 cents while feeder cattle are mostly up better than $1. The CME feeder cattle index rose $1.02 to $217.73.  Cattle slaughter is a about 5,000 higher than last year, though still well below last year. USDA reports Choice boxes up $2.80 at $254.50 and Select up $3.16 at $250.78.

Apr 15 Cattle are at $162.600, up $0.100,

Jun 15 Cattle are at $153.600, up $0.625,

Aug 15 Cattle are at $150.700, up $0.425,

Apr 15 Feeder Cattle are at $219.800, up $1.175

May 15 Feeder Cattle are at $218.700, up $1.250

Aug 15 Feeder Cattle are at $219.900, up $1.000

Lean Hogs

March 31, 2015

Lean hog futures closed higher yesterday and are up $1 or more this morning. The CME lean hog index dropped 42 cents to $60.39. The pork carcass cutout gained 4 cents, at $65.39. In the cash market, Iowa/Minnesota cash hog prices are down a strong $2.12 and Western Corn Belt prices are down 80 cents. Pork carcass cutout is $65.01 this morning, down 38 cents.

Apr 15 Hogs are at $62.300, up $1.000,

May 15 Hogs are at $69.500, up $1.300

Jun 15 Hogs are at $77.125, up $1.575

Cotton

March 31, 2015

Cotton futures are down as much as 20 points lower at midday.  A Dow Jones survey put the average trade estimate for 2015 cotton acreage at 9.44 million, with a range from 9.0-9.6 million. USDA reports farmers actually intend to plant 9.549ma. While that is somewhat above the pre-report estimates, it is well below USDA’s February estimate and down 1.49 million from last year. Field work continues to be hindered by excess moisture in southern and the Gulf portion of Texas, where more than 3 inches of rain fell last week. Mississippi had 0.6 day suitable for field work. No Texas cotton has been reported planted yet.  Certified stocks for March 27 crept up to 10,292 bales, with 521 new certs. The Cotlook A Index is up 50, at 70.35. The dollar is another 400 points stronger this morning.

May 15 Cotton is at 62.34, down 18 points,

Jul 15 Cotton is at 62.8, down 20 points

Oct 15 Cotton is at 63.42, down 7 points

Dec 15 Cotton is at 63.65, down 13 points


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