AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

November 26, 2014

Corn futures settled mostly about 4 cents higher on the day, supported by higher wheat prices along with a weekly EIA report that was bullish for corn use.  The report showed the largest-ever daily average production rate for ethanol in a single week, and US ethanol stocks were down 1.5% from last week.  Brazilian sources continue to see first crop acreage down between 4-8%.  China is beginning their annual reserve buying program, paying roughly $9.35 per bushel to take up to 40 MMT of corn off the market between now and April. The government sells back those reserves in the summer when local supplies are tighter.

Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.78 1/4, up 4 cents,

Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.91 1/2, up 4 1/4 cents,

May 15 Corn closed at $4.00 1/4, up 4 1/2 cents

Jul 15 Corn closed at $4.07, up 4 cents

Soybeans

November 26, 2014

Soybean futures finished the day mostly 2 to 4 cents lower after January was down as much as 12 cents on the day earlier in the session.  Nearby December meal saw some support from the shorts scrambling to exit ahead of December deliveries.  There are currently no receipts registered for delivery against Dec meal. The USDA attaché in Brazil lowered its estimate for Brazilian soybean production to 92 MMT from 94 MMT previously.  China bought another 120,000 MT of soybeans for 2014/15 delivery, as announced by USDA under the daily reporting system. This ran counter to other market “talk” that crush margins on imported beans had turned negative in China.

Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $10.47, down 4 cents,

Mar 15 Soybeans closed at $10.52 3/4, down 3 1/2 cents,

May 15 Soybeans closed at $10.58 3/4, down 2 1/2 cents,

Jul 15 Soybeans closed at $10.63, down 2 1/4 cents,

Dec 14 Soybean Meal closed at $401.60, up $11.00,

Dec 14 Soybean Oil closed at $33.48, up $0.06

Wheat

November 26, 2014

Wheat futures were higher for all three major classes today.  CHI wheat finished the day up more than 10 cents in the front month.  December MPLS wheat was more than 7 cents higher on the day.  Gulf bids for CIF SRW jumped 5 to 10 cents in the midday report, with January shipments now bid at $1.10 over March futures.  EU wheat futures on the MATIF rallied close to their July highs, due to strong exports.  Brazilian production is estimated to be 7.5 MMT by local sources, up almost 30% from the depressed 2013 crop. 

Dec 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.62, up 10 1/2 cents,

Dec 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.21, up 3 3/4 cents,

Dec 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.98 1/2, up 7 3/4 cents

Cattle

November 26, 2014

Cattle futures were lower today, with the summer 2015 contracts trading into the green before selling off to close in negative territory.  January feeders finished at $230.50.  The CME index is at $240.72 for the 11/25 average, up 3 cents from the previous day. Wholesale beef prices were higher again today, with Choice boxes up $0.26 and Select up $0.33.  Week to date slaughter estimated at 347K head was 18K head larger than a week ago, and 26K head smaller than a year ago. Cash cattle traded in volume today at $172-173, with limited activity in the north at $267.00.  Most of the asking prices in the north are still above $270.

Dec 14 Cattle closed at $169.250, down $0.900,

Feb 15 Cattle closed at $169.675, down $1.350,

Apr 15 Cattle closed at $168.300, down $0.800,

Jan 15 Feeder Cattle closed at $230.500, down $0.875

Mar 15 Feeder Cattle closed at $229.350, down $0.575

Apr 15 Feeder Cattle closed at $229.950, down $0.300

 

Lean Hogs

November 26, 2014

Hog futures were mixed today.  December settled UNCH, after posting a 45 cent trading range on the day.  April and August hogs were higher, but May hogs were flat, and the other contracts were 27 to 40 cents lower.  The week to date estimated slaughter is 1.3 million head, which is 27K head larger than a week ago, and 3K head larger than a year ago. The pork carcass cutout value was up 61 cents from yesterday, when the carcass price was the lowest reported since early February.  The CME Lean Hog Index was down 4 cents at $88.74.  The ECB hog market was reported 20 cents lower today.  The WCB market was $1.22 lower, and the IA/MN average came in 60 cents lower than on Tuesday.

Dec 14 Hogs closed at $90.950, unch,

Feb 15 Hogs closed at $89.550, down $0.275

Apr 15 Hogs closed at $91.875, up $0.225

Cotton

November 26, 2014

Cotton futures were higher today, up 61 to 175 points.  The US dollar index was weaker for much of the day, but ended the session fractionally higher.  The ICAC unveiled a World Cotton Calendar, offering the latest data on area, production and yield.  US cotton ginnings as of November 15 were approximately 7.53 million bales when they were only about 5.72 million bales a year earlier.  The cash market should be well supplied. Cert stocks for December deliveries are up to 31,351 bales thanks to 1,575 new certs issued on Tuesday. There have been zero deliveries vs. December cotton. The Cotlook A Index is up 50 points at 66.45.

Dec 14 Cotton closed at 61.41, up 175 points,

Mar 15 Cotton closed at 60.03, up 72 points

May 15 Cotton closed at 60.83, up 64 points

Jul 15 Cotton closed at 61.74, up 61 points


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