AgriCharts Market Commentary

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February 12, 2016

Corn futures finished the day down 1 to 1 1/2 cents, as front month Mar16 was down 7 cents for the week, finding pressure mostly from pessimism about US exports this week. Total export commitments as a percent of total exports are only 59%, even with a lower estimate recently issued by the government; the five year average for this week is 72%.  A decent rebound in the USD (+600 points today) kept the pressure on to finish the week.  The ag markets will be closed on Monday due to the Presidents Day holiday.  As of last night, the national average cash corn price was $3.37, which is about 25 1/2 cents below where it was for this date in 2015. The national US corn basis was 23 1/4 under March futures according to DTN, which is about even with basis at this time last year.  Weekly data from the CFTC showed managed money accounts were 43,306 contracts more short vs. a week earlier, and the PMPU group was 57,843 contracts less short. The net short position held by managed money as of the close on Tuesday was 102,785 contracts. Ethanol prices at the pumps this week were down a penny in IL and IA, but steady in NE, and a penny higher in SD.

Mar 16 Corn settled at $3.58 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents,

May 16 Corn settled at $3.63 1/2, down 1 1/2 cents,

Jul 16 Corn settled at $3.68 1/2, down 1 1/4 cents

Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.73 1/2, down 1 cent


February 12, 2016

Soybean futures were off 1 to 2 pennies on Friday, following the big gains made on Thursday. The March contract was up 5 1/4 cents over the past week. Chinese markets are closed for the Lunar New Year holiday, and US Ag Markets are closed on Monday for Presidents Day as the Chinese come back to work.  According to DTN, the national average cash soybean price was $8.25 1/2 last night, down $1.07 from this time a year ago. Data shows the national average basis is off 2 3/4 cents from last year, at 48 cents under.  The weekly Commitment of Traders report was published at 2:30 PM showing positions reported as of the close on Tuesday. Managed money accounts were 68,137 contracts net short as of Tuesday, which was 42,275 contracts more short from a week earlier. NOPA crush data for January will be released on Tuesday. Average trade estimates expect the report to show 155.267 mbu (January 2015: 162.675 mbu).

Mar 16 Soybeans settled at $8.72 3/4, down 3/4 cent,

May 16 Soybeans settled at $8.76 1/2, down 1 1/4 cents,

Jul 16 Soybeans settled at $8.81 3/4, down 1 1/4 cents,

Aug 16 Soybeans settled at $8.83 1/2, down 1 1/4 cents,

Mar 16 Soybean Meal settled at $262.00, down $1.70,

Mar 16 Soybean Oil settled at $31.80, up $0.21


February 12, 2016

Wheat futures were steady to mostly lower on Friday, as SRW and HRS were down 1 to 5 cents, but HRW was mostly steady. This week, the front month contracts were down 6 cents to a dime.   Large world wheat stocks continue to pressure the market. US export commitments are at 81% of the current USDA estimate, while the 5yr avg for this week of the marketing year is 87%. Bloomberg reports that the winter wheat crop in one of the main growing regions in Russia is “at risk of damage from ice.” That government is also considering adjustments to its export program.  After receiving only five offers in its tender, Egypt purchased 60,000 MT of Romanian wheat this morning for $186.55/ton FOB for March 10 to 20 delivery. French offers were the cheapest at $185.25/ton FOB. The Commitment of Traders report from the CFTC published after the close showed that (as of Tuesday night) managed money accounts were 32,360 contracts more short vs. last week in SRW, and 6,198 contracts more short vs. last week in HRW. The net short positions as of Tuesday were 81,045 contracts (SRW), and 26,317 contracts (HRW).

May 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.62 1/2, down 1 cent,

May 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.53 3/4, unch,

May 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $4.87 1/2, down 3 1/4 cents


February 12, 2016

Live cattle futures are trading mostly four or five dimes lower at midday, following losses from $1.975 to $2.35 on Thursday. Feeders are currently lower, but the March contract is slightly higher after the Thursday session saw most contracts put in new lows for their moves. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for 2/10 was down 70 cents to $158.79. Negotiated cash sales reported on Thursday were between $128 and $134, with a lower average price for the >80% Choice, than the <80% Choice live steers. Dressed sales were reported at $204 to $207. The USDA reports that choice boxed beef prices are down 35 cents this morning, and select boxes are off a buck. Week to date FI slaughter was estimated 431,000 head, up 3,000 head from the same week a year ago.

Feb 16 Cattle are at $129.650, down $0.475,

Apr 16 Cattle are at $129.100, down $0.425,

Jun 16 Cattle are at $119.575, down $0.400,

Mar 16 Feeder Cattle are at $150.400, up $0.150

Apr 16 Feeder Cattle are at $149.550, down $0.300

May 16 Feeder Cattle are at $148.775, down $0.600

Lean Hogs

February 12, 2016

Hog futures were mostly 22 to 92.5 cents higher today, and the April contract was 7.5 cents higher since last Friday.  Feb hogs expired today at $65.95. The CME Lean Hog Index for 2/10 was 31 cents higher to $65.60. The USDA average carcass cutout price this afternoon was $76.08, up 56 cents from yesterday (-$1.49 Fri to Fri). The national average cash hog base price reported this afternoon was down 65 cents. Regional prices were just 2 cents lower in IA/MN, and off 4 cents in the WCB. Weekly FI slaughter including Saturday estimates was 2.281 million head, up 55,000 head from the same period in 2015. Weekly pork production was estimated at 487.1 million pounds, 2% more than the same week in 2015. Data from the CFTC this afternoon showed that managed money accounts held a net long position of 37,627 contracts as of the close on Feb 9.

Feb 16 Hogs settled at $65.950, up $0.425,

Apr 16 Hogs settled at $70.375, up $0.925

May 16 Hogs settled at $76.275, up $0.625


February 12, 2016

Cotton futures were mixed on the session with gains of 48 points for front month Mar16, but losses of 7 to 33 points thereon out. March futures lost 107 points since last Friday (-1.8%). The USD was more than 1000 points lower this week, but finished Friday on an up note. Crude oil was up more than 10% on Friday, the largest daily % gain in 7 years.  The weekly Disaggregated Report today showed that managed money only held a net long position of 599 contracts as of the close on Tuesday. The group was seen reducing their net long position by 24,242 contracts from the week before. The Cotlook A Index was 15 points higher to 66.00. ICE reported that there were 32,629 certified bales in warehouses on February 11, with 3,501 new certs and no decertified bales. The USDA AWP for this upcoming week is 45.09, with the LDP/MLG up to 6.91 cents for the week after being 5.15 cents this past week. That rate is good through next Thursday.

Mar 16 Cotton settled at 58.900, up 48 points,

May 16 Cotton settled at 58.640, down 7 points

Jul 16 Cotton settled at 59.070, down 24 points

Market Commentary provided by:

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