AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

July 28, 2014

Corn futures closed 4 to 5 cents higher on the day.   Trader talk is that Taiwan is tendering to buy 60,000 MT of corn from either the U.S. or South America.  Weekly export inspections last week were 805,365 MT, down from 941,977 MT t he prior week.  YTD shipments are now 41,818,344 MT, well above the 15,954,578 MT at this time lats year.  A Reuters poll on Friday showed that the market is currently trading a 170.5 bpa average yield, 5.2 bpa above the USDA July figure. USDA reported tonight that 78% of the corn crop is silking, ahead of the 75% average for this date.  They show 17% in dough stage, also slightly ahead of the 16% average. The Brugler500 crop condition index dropped to 390 from 392 last week. It was 393 on this date in 2004.

 

Sep 14 Corn closed at $3.67 3/4, up 4 3/4 cents,

Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.76 3/4, up 5 cents,

Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.88 1/2, up 5 1/4 cents

May 15 Corn closed at $3.96 1/2, up 5 1/2 cents

 

Soybeans

July 28, 2014

Soybean futures closed 23 to 24 cents higher on the day. Weekly soybean export inspections totaled 112,345 MT, up from 97,160 MT last week.  YTD inspections are now at 43,022,455 MT which compares to 35,333,329 MT last year.  Private exporters reported to the USDA sales of 486,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2014/2015 marketing year.  Of the total, 66,000 tons are optional origin sales.  The Brugler500 condition index dropped 3 points to 380. That is still the best rating since 1994 (+3 vs. 2004). We lost 2% of the acreage out of the Good category.  Pod set is advanced, at 38% vs. the 5 year average of 31%.

Aug 14 Soybeans closed at $12.36 1/2, up 24 1/4 cents,

Sep 14 Soybeans closed at $11.37, up 23 1/4 cents,

Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $11.07 3/4, up 24 1/4 cents,

Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $11.14 1/4, up 24 cents,

Aug 14 Soybean Meal closed at $402.80, up $4.80,

Aug 14 Soybean Oil closed at $36.52, up $0.43

Wheat

July 28, 2014

Wheat futures closed 3 to 5 cents lower today. Weekly wheat export inspections were reported at 395,963 MT, down from 527,633 MT last week.  YTD inspections are now at 3,643,897 MT, which compares to 5,116,841 MT at this time last year.    Private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 101,000 metric tons of wheat for delivery to Nigeria during the 2014/2015 marketing year.  Of the total, 61,000 tons is hard red winter and 40,000 tons is soft red winter wheat. The US winter wheat harvest is still cruising along at 83% complete. The 5-year average would be 80%. Spring wheat heading matches the average pace of 93%. USDA shows 70% of the crop in good/ex condition, the same as last week but with 1% more rated excellent.

 

Sep 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.34 3/4, down 3 1/4 cents,

Sep 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.25 1/2, down 5 3/4 cents,

Sep 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.21 1/4, down 6 1/2 cents

Cattle

July 28, 2014

Cattle futures settled $0.82 lower to $0.35 higher.  Feeders were $1.90 to $1.97 higher.   The trade tried to fade the bullish USDA COF report from Friday, but everything from December forward was higher. The Cattle Inventory report showed beef cow numbers down 2.5% vs. 2 years ago, with replacement heifers also down 2.4%. There was no July report in 2013 due to budget cuts, thus the 2 year comps. This was supportive to feeder cattle. Wholesale beef prices are higher, with Choice boxes up $1.92 at $259.30 and Select up $1.84 at $256.17.  USDA pasture condition ratings continue to slip seasonally, with 52% rated good/ex vs. 53% last week but still better than the 44% a year ago.

Aug 14 Cattle closed at $159.050, down $0.100,

Oct 14 Cattle closed at $159.075, down $0.825,

Dec 14 Cattle closed at $159.250, up $0.350,

Aug 14 Feeder Cattle closed at $220.175, up $1.975

Sep 14 Feeder Cattle closed at $221.200, up $1.900

Oct 14 Feeder Cattle closed at $220.850, up $1.900

Lean Hogs

July 28, 2014

Lean hogs settled $0.07 to $1.05 lower. The average pork carcass cutout value was 85 cents lower today at $130.94. The volatile belly primal was up $12.36 in the morning report but $2.36 lower than on Friday in the pm version. The CME Lean Hog Index is down $0.86 at $130.33.  Monday estimated slaughter was 397,000 head, above both week ago and year ago. One day doesn’t make a trend. Cash hog prices continue to be under pressure, however. IA/MN area carcass base prices were reported $2.99 lower.  The ECB hogs are $1.28 lower, and the WCB are $2.84 lower.

Aug 14 Hogs closed at $123.675, down $0.075,

Oct 14 Hogs closed at $106.625, down $0.850

Dec 14 Hogs closed at $97.350, down $1.050

Cotton

July 28, 2014

Cotton futures closed 20 to 60 points higher on the day.  China cotton futures on the Zhengzhou exchange for Jan delivery were up 0.04%.  Business to business sales totaled 18 bales On the Seam this past Friday.  Cert stocks dropped to 164,719 bales, with 11,654 decerts and 0 new certs.   The Cotlook A Index is down 0.65 at 80.50.   USDA tonight reported that 87% of the crop is squaring, vs. the 89% average and 87% last year.  They show 49% setting bolls vs. only 37% a year ago at this time.  Condition ratings improved 4 points on the Brugler500 Index, with 54% of the crop rated good or excellent.

Oct 14 Cotton closed at 65.36, up 20 points,

Dec 14 Cotton closed at 65.88, up 53 points

Mar 15 Cotton closed at 66.63, up 60 points


Market Commentary provided by:

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