AgriCharts Market Commentary

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October 08, 2015

Corn futures settled around 4 cents lower, due to poor export sales information and profit taking ahead of the Friday USDA reports. Dec15 corn (-4 1/2 cents) retreated for the second day in a row, after four consecutive days with gains. The weekly USDA Export Sales report showed net export sales of 466,600 MT during the week ending 10/1. Mexico was the biggest buyer (338,300 MT). Sales for the 15/16 crop declined by 30.5% from the previous week, and the 16/17 crop had net reductions of 53,050 MT. Current export commitments (sales and shipments) are only 72% of this time in 2014.

Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.91 1/4, down 4 1/2 cents,

Mar 16 Corn closed at $4.01 3/4, down 4 1/2 cents,

May 16 Corn closed at $4.07 3/4, down 4 3/4 cents

Jul 16 Corn closed at $4.13, down 4 1/4 cents


October 08, 2015

Soybean futures were down 8 cents to a dime today. The attaches in Brazil and Argentina estimated the 15/16 soy crop at 97 MMT and 57 MMT respectively, each steady with the September WASDE, but with 1 MMT fewer Brazilian exports at 53.5 MMT. The USDA Export Sales report this morning showed 2.28 MMT of soybeans were sold during the week ending last Thursday. Of that, 995,600 MT was 16/17 beans, setting a new marketing year high. These were assumed to be part of the Chinese frame contract. Total sales declined by 9% from the week before. Total soybean commitments are about 7.739 MMT behind year ago but gaining ground. Meal sales netted 275,700 MT, and oil sales were 8,500 MT. The soy meal marketing year began on Oct 1.

Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $8.81 1/4, down 9 3/4 cents,

Jan 16 Soybeans closed at $8.86 1/4, down 8 3/4 cents,

Mar 16 Soybeans closed at $8.90, down 8 3/4 cents,

May 16 Soybeans closed at $8.94 1/2, down 8 1/2 cents,

Oct 15 Soybean Meal closed at $303.80, down $1.40,

Oct 15 Soybean Oil closed at $28.17, down $0.25


October 08, 2015

Wheat futures were 3 to 6 cents lower in CHI and KC on Thursday, but only 1 to 3 cents lower in MPLS, continuing the backwards drift in preparation for the WASDE report tomorrow morning. The Dow was up for the fifth consecutive day, closing above 17,000 for the first time since August 19. Wheat export sales totaled 293,100 MT during the week ending Oct 1, an increase of 280% from the week before but within trade expectations. Thailand (57,600 MT) was the largest buyer, followed closely by South Korea (53,500 MT) and the Philippines (36,700 MT). Accumulated exports are 17% smaller than they were at week 18 in 2014. Japan purchased 119,141 MT of wheat for November to December delivery, only 30,700 MT of which was US wheat. Egypt is tendering for wheat tonight, for November 11-20 delivery.

Dec 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.11 1/2, down 5 1/4 cents,

Dec 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.03 1/2, down 4 1/2 cents,

Dec 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.31, down 1 3/4 cents


October 08, 2015

Live cattle futures finished trade $1.50 to $2.00 higher on Thursday, after posting triple digit gains on Wednesday. Feeders also posted extended their rally with new triple digit gains. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for 10/7 was $183.43, up $1.16 from the previous day. Beef imports (313.603 million pounds) were up 27.8% from August 2014 and the largest for the month of August since 2005. US August beef exports (175.887 million pounds) declined by 12% from July, and 23.6% from August 2014, recording the lowest export levels for the month of August since 2009. USDA weekly beef export sales increased by 20% from the previous week, recording sales of 10,600 MT during the week ending 10/1. USDA showed 2,300 MT of that total for 2016 shipment. Cash cattle trade was limited today, but a few dressed sales were reported at $190. The USDA showed choice boxes were 3 pennies higher to $203.61 today, but select boxes were 24 cents lower to $197.46. WTD estimated FI slaughter was 438,000 head down 7,000 head from last week, and 14,000 head smaller than a year ago.

Oct 15 Cattle closed at $131.175, up $1.825,

Dec 15 Cattle closed at $137.675, up $1.525,

Feb 16 Cattle closed at $139.175, up $1.500,

Oct 15 Feeder Cattle closed at $187.875, up $2.925

Nov 15 Feeder Cattle closed at $184.100, up $2.875

Jan 16 Feeder Cattle closed at $178.900, up $2.625

Lean Hogs

October 08, 2015

Hog futures settled 10 to 30 cents higher on Thursday afternoon. Soon to expire October closed 17.5 cents higher at $74.00 in its attempt to converge with the Index. The CME Lean Hog Index for 10/6 was 54 cents higher to $74.29. The USDA reported that 373.828 million pounds of US pork was exported during August, with a seasonal decline of 5.4% from July, but 6.4% more than August 2014. Weekly USDA pork export sales totaled 14,700 MT during the week ending last Thursday, a decline of 44% from the week before. Total commits are 11% larger than last year. The USDA reported the average carcass cutout price was up $1.89 to $88.82 on Thursday afternoon. Cash hog base prices were off 18 cents in IA/MN, and 64 cents lower in the WCB. Estimated FI slaughter through Thursday afternoon was 1.736 million head, larger than last week by 20,000 head, and up 30,000 head from a year ago at this time.

Oct 15 Hogs closed at $74.000, up $0.175,

Dec 15 Hogs closed at $66.150, up $0.175

Feb 16 Hogs closed at $69.075, up $0.250


October 08, 2015

Cotton futures traded around 35 points lower on Thursday. The USDA weekly Export Sales report showed that 565,200 RB of cotton was sold during the week ending Oct 1, including just 3,000 RB of Pima. Total sales set a marketing year high, and were 4.8 times larger than the previous week. China purchased 7,395 RB of cotton, down 8% from the previous week. Accumulated exports to China are 71% smaller than they were at this time a year ago, due largely to the cotton stockpiles in the country. The Cotlook A Index was 25 points higher to 68.45. There were 43,604 certified bales in delivery warehouses on 10/7, with 264 new certified bales, and 1,024 decertified bales.

Dec 15 Cotton closed at 61.720, down 33 points,

Mar 16 Cotton closed at 61.600, down 35 points

May 16 Cotton closed at 62.150, down 35 points

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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