AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

May 04, 2016

Corn futures closed 1 to 5 cents lower on Wednesday on favorable planting conditions across the Midwest, along with bearish ethanol data. This morning, the EIA reported that ethanol production fell to 923,000 barrels per day during the week ending last Friday. This was down 4,000 barrels per day from the previous week, and was the slowest weekly production rate since the week ending May 8, 2015. As of April 29, ethanol stocks were at 22.2 million barrels, up 600,000 barrels from the previous Friday.Trade estimates for the USDA weekly Export Sales report for week ending last Thursday range from 750,000 MT to 1.4 MMT. Agroconsult pegged its updated Brazilian safrinha production estimate at 52.5 MMT, down 2.1 MMT from its previous estimate, and FC Stone reduced their estimate by 6.7 MMT fo 49.8 MMT. Under the daily reporting system, private exporters reported that 107,500 MT of US corn was sold to Japan this morning for 2015/16 delivery. Argentinean corn exports from January to March were up 84% from the same period in 2015.

May 16 Corn settled at $3.73 1/4, down 5 cents,

Jul 16 Corn settled at $3.76 3/4, down 3 cents,

Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.79, down 2 1/2 cents

Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.85, down 2 cents

Soybeans

May 04, 2016

Soybean futures finished the session 3 to 5 1/4 cents higher, after being as much as 15 3/4 cents higher at one point during the day. The Nov16 contract was up 5 1/4 cents today. More delays to the Argentinean soybean harvest continue to support US beans. US Soybean export sales during the week ending April 28 are estimated to be between 600,000 MT and 1.0 MMT. Soy meal sales are projected to land between 125,000 and 375,000 MT, and soy oil sales are predicted to be 0 to 15,000 MT. The official USDA figure will be released tomorrow morning at 7:30 AM CDT. FC Stone cut its Brazilian soybean production estimate by 1.0 MMT to 96.5 MMT (USDA: 100.0 MMT). Celeres is still at 99.9 MMT. Average Tuesday US export prices of $394/ton were $6/ton below those of Brazil, according to the IGC. Average Argentinean prices were still $8/ton below the US offers. A survey of trade analysts shows Canadian canola stocks are expected to be 7.3 MMT as of March 31, versus 8.3 MMT on March 31, 2015. Stats Canada will release its official figures on Friday.

May 16 Soybeans settled at $10.24 1/2, up 3 cents,

Jul 16 Soybeans settled at $10.34, up 4 cents,

Aug 16 Soybeans settled at $10.36, up 4 cents,

Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $10.15 1/2, up 5 1/4 cents,

May 16 Soybean Meal settled at $343.00, up $3.50,

May 16 Soybean Oil settled at $32.20, up $0.07

Wheat

May 04, 2016

Wheat futures settled mostly steady to 4 3/4 cents higher, with the strength in MPLS. Most contracts closed 4 to 5 cents below their respective daily highs. Trade analysts expect export bookings during the week ending last Thursday to range from 250,000 to 650,000 MT. Australian wheat production in 2016/17 is estimated to be 24.0 MMT by the ag attache there, steady with the post estimate for 15/16. The official 15/16 USDA figure as of the April WASDE report was 24.5 MMT. Canadian wheat stocks as of March 31 are expected to be 13.8 MMT, per a pre-report Reuters survey. That would be down 24% from year ago. The official Stats Canada report is due to be released on Friday. January to March Argentinean wheat exports were up 105% from a year ago, following the removal of the export tariff late last year.

Jul 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.71 1/4, up 1/2 cent,

Jul 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.57 3/4, up 2 cents,

Jul 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.41, up 4 3/4 cents

Cattle

May 04, 2016

Live cattle futures closed 45 cents to $1.075 higher, with the most strength in front month Jun16 cattle. The Jun16 contract finished higher for the fourth consecutive day for the first time since March 11 – 16. Feeders settled the midweek trade 57.5 cents lower to $1.525 higher, with May16 feeders the strongest. Aug16 feeders ended at their highest close in a week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for 5/3 was down 16 cents to $143.38. Cash cattle trade recorded a few live sales from $118 to $119 on Tuesday, but was mostly inactive in all feeding regions on Wednesday. Choice boxed beef prices were down $1.20 to $204.74 on Wednesday, and select boxes were $1.37 lower to $195.65. Through Wednesday, WTD FI slaughter was estimated at 332,000 head, down 3,000 head from last week, but 4,000 head larger than the same period in 2015.

Jun 16 Cattle settled at $117.450, up $1.075,

Aug 16 Cattle settled at $115.300, up $0.950,

Oct 16 Cattle settled at $115.075, up $0.750,

May 16 Feeder Cattle settled at $144.925, up $1.525

Aug 16 Feeder Cattle settled at $143.625, up $0.575

Sep 16 Feeder Cattle settled at $142.650, up $0.150

Lean Hogs

May 04, 2016

Hog futures ended the day 2.5 cents to $1.10 lower, with the most weakness in the front two months. Jun16 hogs closed lower for the first time since April 26, giving back its gains made on Monday and Tuesday. The CME Lean Hog Index for 5/2 was 66 cents higher to $71.77. The average carcass cutout value was down 11 cents on Wednesday to $82.46. Bellies were down $8.16/cwt in average price, but the ham cutout was up $4.17/cwt from Tuesday night. The national average cash hog base price on Wednesday was $1.06 higher. Regional prices were up $1.26 in IA/MN, and $1.29 higher in the WCB. Estimated WTD FI slaughter was 1.295 million head, up 4,000 head from last week, and 35,000 head larger than the same three days a year ago. Chinese pork prices in April were up 51% from March. The country plans to release 6.72 million pounds of pork from its stockpiles over the next two months to bring prices back down.

May 16 Hogs settled at $77.375, down $1.100,

Jun 16 Hogs settled at $81.825, down $1.100

Jul 16 Hogs settled at $82.600, down $0.750

Cotton

May 04, 2016

Cotton futures settled mostly 23 to 35 points lower with most heavily traded Jul16 cotton holding the firmest. The Jul and Dec16 contracts were down as much as 75 and 74 points respectively at one point during the Wednesday session. Trade analysts believe net export sales of upland cotton will be below the four week average of 112,246 RB for the week ending April 28. The Cotlook A Index was up 75 points to 72.00. ICE reported that there were 58,340 certified bales in warehouses on May 3, with no new certs, and no decertified bales. There were 1,691 bales awaiting review at the Memphis, TN delivery point. The USDA AWP for this week is 52.33, up from 50.53 last week. The MLG dropped to 0, from 1.47 during the past week.

Jul 16 Cotton settled at 62.780, down 28 points,

Dec 16 Cotton settled at 62.000, down 35 points

Mar 17 Cotton settled at 62.340, down 23 points


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