AgriCharts Market Commentary
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Corn futures are currently trading a couple cents higher, after closing a nickel higher on Monday. Yesterday afternoon, the EPA released its ethanol blending requirements, requiring refiners to blend 18.11 billion gallons of renewable fuels in 2016 (May 2015 proposal: 17.4 bil gal; Congress 2007 target: 22.25 bil gal), including 14.5 bil gal of ethanol in 2016 and 14.05 bil gallons in 2015. Marketing year to date inspections are 6.714 MMT, still down 26% from the same point in 2014. The CFTC report was delayed until last night due to the Thanksgiving holiday. It showed that managed money spec accounts increased their corn net short position by 41,404 contracts to a net short position of 99,808 contracts as of the close last Tuesday.
Soybean futures are trading mostly 6 cents higher this morning, after extending gains another 7 to 8 cents on Monday. The monthly soybean crushings report will be published today. Monday morning, the USDA reported that 1.835 MMT of soybeans were inspected for export during the week ending Nov 26. As of last Thursday, year to date inspections have reached 19.969 MMT, about 7% smaller than this point a year ago. The Commitment of Traders report released yesterday showed managed money soybean accounts slightly increased their net short position (624 contracts for the week). The position as of 11/24 was 52,925 contracts net short. Brazilian planting is now estimated to be 81% completed, up from 71% last week but still lagging year ago.
Wheat futures are mostly 2 to 3 1/2 cents higher this morning, after trading mixed on Monday. CHI wheat was 6 cents lower to 6 cents higher. KC wheat closed up 6 to 7 cents. MPLS wheat was fractionally lower to 13 cents higher, with front month Dec the strongest. The USDA reported last night after the close that the winter wheat condition improved by 2 points this week, to 55% good to excellent (2014: 58%). Emergence is right on the five year average pace at 93% complete. The Disaggregated Report showed that managed money accounts in both CHI and KC wheat increased their net short position during the week ending last Tuesday, by 26,408 contracts and 3,540 contracts respectively. The updated position in CHI was 47,353 contracts net short, while KC was 24,115 contracts net short. Marketing year to date inspections are 16% below the pace set in 2014. Deliveries against Chicago Dec slowed to 1,517 contracts. Dreyfus stopped 379 for the house account. There were 83 deliveries vs. KC December futures, all stopped by an RCG client.
Live cattle futures settled with triple digit losses on Monday. Feeder futures closed more than $3.00 lower yesterday on higher feed costs and the weakness in the fats. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for 11/27 was $1.64 higher to $173.80. The Commitment of Traders report showed that managed money live cattle accounts increased their net long position by 656 contracts during the week ending 11/24, to 5,622 contracts net long. Feeder accounts changed from a net long position of 22 contracts to a net short position of 866 contracts. Average cash cattle prices last week were $124.80 live and 196.30 dressed last week, both up around $1.50 from the week before. The USDA reported mixed wholesale beef prices yesterday, as choice boxes were $1.25 higher, but select boxes were down 64 cents. Total beef production during October was 2.125 billion pounds, 39.6 million pounds more than September, but 45.8 million pounds less than October 2014. Estimated FI slaughter on Monday totaled 110,000 head, up 1,000 head from last week, and steady with that of a year ago.
Hog futures were down 20 to 90 cents on Monday. The CME Lean Hog Index for 11/25 was a dime higher to $55.74. The delayed CFTC report last night showed that managed money hog accounts reduced their net long position by 9,334 contracts during the week ending 11/24. The net long position as of last Tuesday was 11,034 contracts. The USDA average carcass cutout price last afternoon was $1.50 higher to $73.90. Hams were up $2.39 to $62.49/cwt. The national weighted average cash hog base price was 55 cents higher on Monday. Regional prices were up 73 cents in IA/MN, and 87 cents higher in the WCB. Official US pork production figures for October totaled 2.169 billion pounds, 133.4 million pounds more than September, and 60.5 million pounds more than October 2014. FI slaughter yesterday was estimated at 438,000 head, 2,000 head smaller than last week, but 7,000 head larger than the same Monday in 2014.
Cotton futures are currently trading from 27 to 31 points higher after settling the Monday traded sharply lower. The weekly USDA Crop Progress report last night showed that the US cotton harvest is still behind schedule, with only 80% of the crop harvested as of Sunday night, compared to the five year average of 88% at this time. The Commitment of Traders report stated that managed money cotton accounts held a net long position of 30,192 contracts as of last Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction to the net long position of 4,747 contracts. ICE reported that there were 63,958 certified bales in delivery warehouses on Nov 25, with no new certs and no decertified bales. There were 21 new delivery notices against December futures, all again stopped by a Macquarie customer. USDA put the AWP for this week at 46.89 and dropped the LDP/MLG to 5.11, down .01 from the 5.12 last week.
Market Commentary provided by:
Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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