AgriCharts Market Commentary
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Corn futures are mostly trading a nickel lower this morning, after closing Monday with daily losses from 1 to 2 1/4 cents. The USD is currently up more than 600 points on the day. Several reports were published by the USDA yesterday. The Crop Progress report showed little change overall from last week, with one % sliding over from fair to good. Ohio showed a slight improvement, but the Iowa rating was down from last week. Nationally, 12% of the crop has reached the silking stage, 6 points behind the 5year avg for this week. Weekly Export Inspections for the week ending July 2 were down 19.4% from the previous week, and off -33.6% from the same week in 2014. According to the weekly report from the CFTC, the net position of the Managed Money accounts went from net short -94,522 for the week ending June 23rd, to net long 70,606 contracts as of the closing bell on Tuesday June 30. That is a one week net change of 165,128 contracts!
Soybean futures are trading mostly 7 to 9 cents lower after Monday saw trade down 11.5 to 16 cents. Weekly Export Inspections of soybeans were down 33.49% from the previous week. After the close, USDA reported that the overall condition of the national soybean crop was unchanged from last week. IL, IN, and MO showed a slight decline while the IA crop was unchanged and the MN crop improved. Planting progress increased 2 points from last week, coming in at 96%; still 4% behind the 5 year average. The crop was 93% emerged, and approximately 1/5 of the crop is blooming. The Weekly Commitment of Traders Report showed the Managed Money speculative accounts were net long 67,596 contracts, a net one week increase of 65,767 contracts.
Wheat futures are are mostly 7 to 12 cents lower this morning. The Monday trade closed a couple cents higher, but not before posting a 25 cent trading range on the day. The USDA Crop Progress report on Monday showed that the winter wheat harvest is 55% completed vs the 5yr average of 59% for this week. National condition ratings slipped slightly from the previous week. The spring wheat crop is 76% headed, WAY ahead of the 5yr average of 47% for this date. The weekly Commitment of Traders report from the CFTC showed managed money accounts with a net long position in CBT wheat of 14,106 contracts when they had been net short more than 50,000 contracts the previous week. The MM net position for KC wheat also flipped from net short to net long, coming in at net long 2,236 contracts after a net shift of 5,078 contracts during the week ending June 30.
Live cattle posted moderate losses yesterday, mostly from 25 to 72.5 cents. Feeder cattle were also down 47.5 to 70 cents on the session. The CME cash feeder index for the July 3 average was $221.81, down $1.48. There was almost zero cash cattle activity on Monday. The afternoon USDA report showed wholesale prices sharply lower, with Choice off $2.47 and Select down $4.13. Estimated Monday slaughter was 108,000 head, off 5K head from the previous week and 3K head from a year ago. The CFTC showed managed money accounts lightening up on their net long positions in both cattle and feeders.
Lean hog futures finished the Monday trade mixed. The pork carcass cutout price was up $1.27 at $82.26 in the afternoon report. Rib cuts were up $4 on the day, and loins gained $2.19. Cash hog prices in the WCB were $1.19 higher according to the afternoon summary. Prices in the IA/MN region were up $1.87. The CME Lean Hog Index for the July 1 average is $77.04, off 11 cents. The weekly Commitment of Traders report had managed money accounts shaving about 18.5% off of their net long position during the week ending June 30.
Cotton futures are trading 8 to 42 points lower this morning. The Crop Progress report showed the overall condition of the US cotton crop improved slightly from last week. Cotton squaring was at 48%, which is 7 points behind the 5 yr average. Only 3% of OK was squaring as of Sunday while 32% would be average. About 10% of the US crop is setting bolls, just 4 points behind the norm. The weekly CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed Managed Money accounts more than doubling their net long position in cotton futures and options during the week ending June 30. USDA released the AWP on Thursday night. It is 52.36, leaving us with zero LDP/MLG through July 9.
Market Commentary provided by:
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