AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

July 31, 2015

Corn futures closed 2-4 cents lower on Friday afternoon.  On the weekly board, Sept 15 corn fell by 21 1/2 cents, a change of -5.8%.  Dec corn is down 54 3/4 cents off the July 1 high.  The weekly CFTC report tonight shows that managed money accounts reduced their net long position by 36,864 contracts as of Tuesday, to a new net long of 242,801 contracts.  USDA reported under the daily system that 108,204 MT (72,136 MT for 15/16 delivery) of corn was sold to Mexico this morning.  The remaining 36,068 MT are booked for 16/17 delivery.  The International Grains Council increased its Chinese corn production estimates by 5 MMT to 225 MMT (USDA: 229 MMT).

Sep 15 Corn closed at $3.71, down 2 1/4 cents,

Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.81 1/4, down 2 1/2 cents,

Mar 16 Corn closed at $3.92, down 2 3/4 cents

May 16 Corn closed at $3.98 1/4, down 2 3/4 cents

Soybeans

July 31, 2015

Soybean futures settled the last day of July off 9 to 12 cents.  Even with a couple days of rallies, soybeans could not recover all the ground that was lost on Monday.  Most contracts ended 9 to 15 cents off their daily high.  China canceled the purchase of 200,000 MT of beans for 14/15 delivery early this morning.  September beans ended 10 1/2 cents (-1.1%) off their price from last Friday.  November beans were a quarter of a cent shy of being down a dollar per bushel from the high on July 1.  The Commitment of Traders report today states that the net long position of managed money accounts fell to 62,295 contracts as of the Tuesday close.  This was a net long reduction of 27,924 contracts.

Aug 15 Soybeans closed at $9.80 3/4, down 9 1/2 cents,

Sep 15 Soybeans closed at $9.53 1/4, down 11 1/4 cents,

Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $9.40 1/4, down 9 3/4 cents,

Jan 16 Soybeans closed at $9.45 3/4, down 9 1/2 cents,

Aug 15 Soybean Meal closed at $354.60, down $2.50,

Aug 15 Soybean Oil closed at $29.98, down $0.30

Wheat

July 31, 2015

Wheat futures finished the Friday session mixed, but the weekly chart shows all losses.  Most Friday strength was in the front months.  Prices were 2 down to 3 cents up in CHI (-13 cents on the week), steady to 2 cents higher in KC (-15 cents), and 4 cents lower to a penny higher in MPLS (-22 cents).  The CFTC report released at 2:30 CDT shows CHI managed money accounts decreased their net long position by 15,506 contracts to 5,099 contracts net long.  KC wheat contracts decreased their net long position by 6,829 contracts, to a net short position of 513 contracts.  USDA states that 126,900 MT of wheat was sold to unknown destinations this morning, 67,650 MT of which was HRW.  So far this year, South Korea, the Philippines, and Thailand have purchased nearly 3 MMT of feed wheat from the Black Sea region for July-December delivery, jumping on prices cheaper than US offers.

Sep 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.99 1/4, up 2 3/4 cents,

Sep 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.92 1/4, up 1 1/4 cents,

Sep 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.23 1/2, down 3 1/4 cents

Cattle

July 31, 2015

Live cattle futures closed 35 cents lower (Feb 16) to $1.23 higher (Aug 15).  Feeders finished 90 cents lower to 25 cents higher, with August the firmest).  August contracts were $2.67 higher in live cattle and up $1.07 in feeders on the weekly chart.  Managed money accounts decreased their net long position as of the Tuesday close by 10,554 contracts in live cattle and by 1,201 in feeder cattle according to the weekly CFTC report.  Managed money accounts held net long positions of 27,466 and 4,451 contracts respectively.  Cash cattle had good demand, with sales from $147-$148 in the south, and dressed sales of $232-$234 in the north.  The CME Feeder Cattle Index for 7/30 was 17 cents higher to $215.95.  Wholesale prices were slightly lower in the afternoon report.  Choice boxes were down 9 cents to $233.25, and select boxes, although higher in the morning report, were off just 3 cents to $229.29 on average.   WTD estimated slaughter with Saturday estimates is 532,000 head, about 92% of the slaughter levels this week in 2014.  YTD slaughter numbers have dropped by 6.9% when comparing to a year ago.

Aug 15 Cattle closed at $145.700, up $0.475,

Oct 15 Cattle closed at $145.925, down $0.525,

Dec 15 Cattle closed at $147.450, down $0.675,

Aug 15 Feeder Cattle closed at $210.725, down $0.500

Sep 15 Feeder Cattle closed at $207.750, down $0.850

Oct 15 Feeder Cattle closed at $205.800, down $0.800

Lean Hogs

July 31, 2015

Lean hog futures settled with triple digit losses on Friday.  Hogs were still higher on the weekly chart, with August hogs 82 1/2 cents higher.  The Commitment of Traders report shows managed money accounts had a net long position to 21,946 contracts in hogs as of Tuesday, an increase in the net long position by 4,988 contracts.  The CME Lean Hog Index for the 7/29 average was up 18 cents to $78.51.  The afternoon average pork carcass cutout was $1.25 higher according to the USDA, up to $87.48.  Bellies continue to climb in price, up $3.02 today to $160.27.  This is an increase of $12.77 from last Friday, and a jump of $22.06 throughout the past two weeks.   Estimated WTD slaughter with Saturday estimates is 2.137 million head, an increase of 14% from the same period a year ago.  YTD slaughter is a7.5% ahead of 2014.  Cash hog base prices are 78 cents lower in the WCB according to the afternoon summary.  No comparisons were available in IA/MN, and confidentiality reasons withheld the ECB figures.

Aug 15 Hogs closed at $78.500, down $1.175,

Oct 15 Hogs closed at $63.725, down $1.975

Dec 15 Hogs closed at $60.450, down $1.500

Cotton

July 31, 2015

Cotton futures closed 35 to 80 points higher this afternoon.  Managed money accounts decreased their net long position by 997 contracts as of the Tuesday close.  The CFTC report shows they have a net long position of 46,214 contracts.  The Cotton Association of India has Indian cotton production unchanged at the US equivalent 31.25 million bales for 14/15 (USDA: 29.50 million 480 lb bales).  Stocks are not being disposed of as quickly as projected, with a sizeable amount to be unsold at the end of the marketing year (September 30).  The Cotlook A Index is off 60 points to 70.90, and the Forward A Index is taking a sharp drop, down 200 points to 71.75.  ICE reported that there are 112,358 certified bales in stock, with 3,823 decertified bales. There are currently no new certs and no bales awaiting review.  On Thursday night, USDA set the AWP at 49.54 and increased the LDP/MLG to 2.46 cents through August 6.

Oct 15 Cotton closed at 64.01, up 35 points,

Dec 15 Cotton closed at 64.21, up 66 points

Mar 16 Cotton closed at 64.2, up 63 points

May 16 Cotton closed at 64.45, up 59 points


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