AgriCharts Market Commentary

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October 17, 2014

Corn futures closed mostly four cents lower on the day, but the December still posted a gain of more than 4% for the week.  This morning, USDA reported export sales for the week totaled 2,433,300 MT, which was at the high end of trade estimates and also the highest weekly total reported so far this marketing year.  Mexico was the largest buyer for both 2014/15 and 2015/16.  Also this morning, private exporters reported to the USDA a sale of 126,000 MT sold to an unknown destination.  Informa published a projection for 2015 US corn acreage at 87.8 million acres this morning.  The weekly Commitment of Traders report from the CFTC showed managed money accounts getting longer than they were the previous week.  Their net long position had grown by a net 15,575 contracts as of the closing bell on Tuesday.  

Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.48, down 4 1/4 cents,

Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.61 1/4, down 4 cents,

May 15 Corn closed at $3.70, down 4 1/4 cents

Jul 15 Corn closed at $3.77 1/2, down 4 cents


October 17, 2014

Soybean closed 13 to 14 points lower on the day, but November futures were up nearly 30 cents for the week; posting a trading range of more than 62 cents since last Friday.  The Informa estimate for 2015 planted soybean acres came out today at 88.5 million acres; if realized it would be a 4.5 million acre increase from the current USDA estimate for 2014.  USDA published the weekly export sales figure just below the midpoint of pre-report expectations at 939,900 MT, with more than 709,000 MT booked for China.  The weekly COT report from the CFTC showed managed money accounts getting 7,267 contracts less-short, bringing their net short position to -17,190 contracts as of the Tuesday close.  Total soybean meal export sales for last week were 197,600 MT; current marketing year commitments are more than 160% of what they were for 2013/14 a year ago.  December meal futures were down $4.10 today, but added more than 6% for the week. 

Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $9.51 3/4, down 14 3/4 cents,

Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $9.59 3/4, down 14 1/2 cents,

Mar 15 Soybeans closed at $9.68, down 13 3/4 cents,

May 15 Soybeans closed at $9.76 3/4, down 13 3/4 cents,

Dec 14 Soybean Meal closed at $330.50, down $4.10,

Dec 14 Soybean Oil closed at $32.02, down $0.34


October 17, 2014

Wheat futures closed mostly lower on the day, but all three classes posted gains on the week.  KC added more than 27 cents per bushel since last Friday, and both CBT and MPLS wheat were more than 16 cents higher.  USDA reported net weekly export sales of 494,000 MT for the week ending October 9, when trade estimates were for 350,000 to 600,000 MT range.  London wheat futures were lower in the 14/15 contracts today.  Informa put its 2015 wheat acreage at 56.4 million acres, which is 400K acres less than the 2014/15 USDA estimate in the October WASDE report.  Managed money funds were shown getting less short in CBT wheat, and longer in KC wheat.  They are currently net short -60,063 contracts in CBT wheat, and net long 9,416 contracts in KC wheat.

Dec 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.16, down 1 cent,

Dec 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.01 3/4, down 3 1/4 cents,

Dec 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.70, down 6 1/2 cents


October 17, 2014

Cattle futures settled between 7 and 20 cents into the red today, but October kept 15 cents worth of gains for the week.  Feeder futures were mostly limit down, but the October contract held on for a loss of only $1.75 today.  Since Monday, November feeders posted three limit down days, and one day with prices limit up.  Cash cattle trade this week was reported mostly at $164-165. Carcass based quotes in NE were $257-258.  Wholesale beef prices were mixed in the PM report, with average prices for Choice beef reported 24 cents higher, and Select boxes were 24 cents lower.  They were respectively $1.49 and $0.04 higher for the week.  Weekly beef export sales through October 9 were reported at 8000 MT.  Estimated weekly slaughter including Saturday is 565K head, just 3K head more than last week, and 55K head less than a year ago. The weekly COT report from the CFTC showed managed money accounts getting less short from Tuesday to Tuesday, reducing their net long position -1,812 contracts which, makes them net long 110,132 contracts.

Oct 14 Cattle closed at $165.050, down $0.200,

Dec 14 Cattle closed at $165.050, down $0.250,

Feb 15 Cattle closed at $164.025, down $0.075,

Oct 14 Feeder Cattle closed at $238.450, down $1.750

Nov 14 Feeder Cattle closed at $234.150, down $3.000

Jan 15 Feeder Cattle closed at $228.125, down $3.000

Lean Hogs

October 17, 2014

Hog futures closed ended the day with gains from 50 cents to more than a dollar.  December hogs were up $1.10 on the day, but they lost $3.825 for the week.  The CME Index was down 44 cents at $109.10. The average pork carcass cutout value came in $2.17 lower this afternoon at $111.01.  The Picnic cuts were the only cut showing a higher price than yesterday.  The carcass base price average for the Western Corn Belt today came in $1.52 lower, with the ECB price down $2.90 and the IA/MN area price off $1.84.  Managed money accounts were shown increasing their net long position in lean hogs by 2,370 contracts in the weekly report from the CFTC.  Estimated weekly slaughter including Saturday came in at 2.187 million head, 51K head larger than the previous week, but still off 103K head from the same week a year ago.  YTD slaughter is approximately 5.4% behind what it was a year ago.

Dec 14 Hogs closed at $90.575, up $0.250,

Feb 15 Hogs closed at $87.550, up $1.100

Apr 15 Hogs closed at $87.500, up $1.050


October 17, 2014

Cotton futures ended the session mixed with December off 56 points, and July15 contracts up 45 points.  With front month crude oil futures trading at the lowest levels since the Summer of 2012, ideas of lower priced synthetic fibers weigh on the cotton fiber market.  The US dollar was up more than 200 points again today, fueling doubts about export demand for 2015.  USDA told us this morning that net sales for last week were just 17,900 RB, including 600 RB of pima. The USDA AWP for this week (today through Thursday) is 49.83, leaving an LDP of 2.17 cents.  The Cotlook A index is at 70.20, down 0.10.  Managed money accounts changed back to an overall net long position with a shift of 6,575 contracts, bringing them to net long 5,430 contracts. 

Dec 14 Cotton closed at 63, down 56 points,

Mar 15 Cotton closed at 61.72, up 1 point

May 15 Cotton closed at 62.71, up 28 points

Jul 15 Cotton closed at 63.61, up 45 points

Market Commentary provided by:

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