AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

October 01, 2014

Corn futures are currently around a penny higher on the day after hitting a five year low in the front month on Tuesday.  The US Dollar has chopped around this morning and is now higher on the day.  Ethanol stocks in the weekly EIA report increased by 200,000 barrels from last week while production was down 8 thousand barrels per day. Corn use would have been in the 94-95 million bushel range for the week. The USDA Grain Stocks report showed 2013/14 US ending stocks were 45 million bushels (mbu) larger than the trade had been expecting at 1.236 billion bushels(bbu). Fourth quarter use was record large at 2.62 bbu, but carryover is comfortable with a record new crop expected.

Dec 14 Corn is at $3.22 1/4, up 1 1/2 cents,

Mar 15 Corn is at $3.34 3/4, up 1 1/4 cents,

May 15 Corn is at $3.43 1/2, up 1 1/2 cents

Jul 15 Corn is at $3.50 3/4, up 1 1/4 cents

Soybeans

October 01, 2014

Soybeans are currently trading steady to around 3 cents higher on the session.  New crop beans tried to rally yesterday on official data showing extremely tight old crop stocks, but the yield reports coming from the combines took the price back down.  The market is past that supply crisis and attention is now focused on the Oct 10 production report.  The hike to 44 bpa for last years yield is reinforcing ideas that this year is 48 or higher given better growing conditions in 2014.  Prices are seeing some support today with the frost/freeze risk areas expanding into parts of MN and the Dakotas for Saturday morning on the most aggressive models. Meal and oil are also in the green at midday. There were zero deliveries vs. October meal futures, and only 259 vs. October bean oil.

Nov 14 Soybeans are at $9.17 1/2, up 4 1/4 cents,

Jan 15 Soybeans are at $9.26, up 4 3/4 cents,

Mar 15 Soybeans are at $9.34 1/4, up 4 1/2 cents,

May 15 Soybeans are at $9.42 3/4, up 4 1/4 cents,

Oct 14 Soybean Meal is at $305.40, up $0.80,

Oct 14 Soybean Oil is at $32.81, up $0.54

Wheat

October 01, 2014

Wheat futures are trading mixed with MPLS steady to lower, while CHI and KC are mostly a few cents higher.  In the small grains report published yesterday, the USDA put the 2014 wheat production figure near expectations at 2.035 bbu.  Winter wheat pre-report estimates averaged 1.404 bbu, but the USDA came in on the low end of the range at 1.378 bbu. The September 1, 2014 wheat stocks in all positions totaled 1.914 bbu, very close to the average trade estimate of 1.910 bbu.  Egypt took advantage of the lower prices on Tuesday to schedule a buying tender overnight for early November shipment, buying 120,000 MT of French wheat.

Dec 14 CBOT Wheat is at $4.81, up 3 1/4 cents,

Dec 14 KCBT Wheat is at $5.60 3/4, up 2 3/4 cents,

Dec 14 MGEX Wheat is at $5.34 3/4, up 1 1/4 cents

Cattle

October 01, 2014

Cattle futures are trading sharply higher at midday, with several contracts trading at new highs again this morning.  Feeder cattle are limit up in several contracts.  Boxed beef prices are higher this morning, with Choice boxes averaging 9 cents higher, and Select boxes averaging $0.74 higher.  Cash cattle trade so far this week has been quiet, with not enough sales volume to indicate market trend.  Some asking prices appear to be $162-163 in the south and $254-255 in the north. Estimated week to date slaughter is even with a week ago, but 13K head smaller than the same period a year ago. The CME feeder cattle index is another $0.22 higher at $233.66.

Oct 14 Cattle are at $162.200, up $1.750,

Dec 14 Cattle are at $165.725, up $2.250,

Feb 15 Cattle are at $165.500, up $1.525,

Oct 14 Feeder Cattle are at $238.425, up $3.000

Nov 14 Feeder Cattle are at $238.050, up $3.000

Jan 15 Feeder Cattle are at $231.775, up $3.000

Lean Hogs

October 01, 2014

Hog futures are currently mixed with the front month off more than 57 cents, and the deferred contracts mostly higher.  The CME lean hogs index is at $108.96, up $0.66.  The pork carcass cutout value averaged $0.60 higher at $122.58.  Estimated week to date slaughter is 37K head smaller than a week ago, and 75K head smaller than a year ago. Carcass base prices reported today were $2.99 lower in the IA/MN area, $2.59 lower in the WCB, but they were 58 cents higher in the ECB.

Oct 14 Hogs are at $107.400, down $0.575,

Dec 14 Hogs are at $94.775, up $0.250

Feb 15 Hogs are at $91.575, up $1.150

Cotton

October 01, 2014

Cotton futures are trading higher this morning with December up 78 points and March up 48 points.  The US government resolved a decade-old WTO issue regarding a dispute with Brazil over cotton subsidies.  According to The Hill, the United States agreed to make a final contribution of 300 million dollars to settle the matter.  Ag Secretary Vilsack said this removes a threat to US exports and ensures that American cotton farmers will have effective risk management tools.  ICE Certified stocks are at 18,427 bales, with 118 decerts. The Cotlook A Index is 0.30 lower at 69.65.  

Dec 14 Cotton is at 62.15, up 78 points

Mar 15 Cotton is at 60.93, up 48 points

May 15 Cotton is at 61.73, up 48 points


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